Business Validation

Theories and frameworks for validating product-market fit.

Foundation

Theoretical Frameworks

Critical Assumptions Testing

Identify and validate the riskiest business assumptions before scaling.

Lean Startup / Yitang

Hooked Model

Trigger - Action - Variable Reward - Investment cycle for habit formation.

Nir Eyal

Self-Determination Theory

Autonomy, Competence, Relatedness as drivers of intrinsic motivation.

Deci & Ryan

BJ Fogg Behavior Model

Behavior = Motivation x Ability x Prompt. All three must align.

BJ Fogg

Jobs to be Done

Users "hire" products to accomplish functional, emotional, and social jobs.

Clayton Christensen

Flow Theory

Optimal experience occurs when challenge matches skill level.

Csikszentmihalyi
Yitang Framework

Critical Assumptions

Assumption
Risk
Validation
"Agent teaches Agent" meta concept has appeal
High
Landing A/B, first conversation completion rate
Zen gamification drives retention equally well
High
DAU/MAU, D7/D30 retention comparison
Technical concepts suit Spaced Repetition
Medium
Flashcard review rate, knowledge test scores
Users will pay for Agent conversations
High
Payment funnel conversion, WTP survey
Daily Cap (300 XP) doesn't hurt engagement
Medium
Compare capped vs uncapped cohorts
Habit Formation

Hooked Model Analysis

Trigger
Weak
->
Action
Strong
->
Reward
Medium
->
Investment
Weak

Trigger Gap

Only flashcard reminders exist. No internal triggers or contextual prompts.

Action Strength

Chat interface is familiar. Low friction to start conversation.

Reward Variability

XP is predictable. Need more variable rewards (insights, unlocks).

Investment Gap

User-generated content (notes, progress) not leveraged for lock-in.

Intrinsic Motivation

Self-Determination Theory

C

Competence

Level system + competency matrix
Already well-designed
A

Autonomy

Fixed learning paths
Allow custom path creation
R

Relatedness

Almost none
Community, groups, sharing
Behavior Design

BJ Fogg Model

B = M x A x P
Motivation
Ability
Prompt

Motivation (High)

XP, levels, badges provide strong extrinsic motivation. Content intrinsically interesting.

Ability (Medium)

Is first experience frictionless? Time to first success matters.

Prompt (Low)

What triggers users to learn? Only email/push? No contextual cues.

User Goals

Jobs to be Done

Job Type
Specific Job
Current Design
Functional
Learn to build AI Agents
Skills library, Exercises, Chat learning
Emotional
Feel progress and growth
Level system, XP, Journey card
Social
Prove competence to others
Badges exist, but no sharing mechanism
Growth Metrics

AARRR Funnel

Acquisition
Homepage visits - Click "Start Learning" rate
Activation
First conversation completion - First flashcard created
Retention
D1/D7 retention - Daily Active Users (Core metric)
Revenue
Free-to-paid conversion - ARPU
Referral
NPS - Share rate (Currently missing)
Optimal Experience

Flow Theory

High Challenge Low
Anxiety
Flow Channel
Boredom
Skill Level (Low -> High)

Current L1-L6 is static. Consider dynamic difficulty adjustment based on user performance.

Top 3 Validation Priorities

1

Validate First Conversation Completion

Core metric for "Agent-driven learning" assumption. If users don't finish first chat, the model fails.

2

Add Simple Referral Mechanism

Relatedness is the biggest SDT gap. Even "Share to Twitter" can validate social motivation.

3

A/B Test Daily Cap Impact

300 XP cap is a Zen design bet. Need data to confirm it doesn't hurt engaged users.

Next Steps

Validation Checklist

View actionable strategies

Growth Playbook: Investment, Relatedness, Flow, Sharing